lennart
06-10-03, 17:24
Lebanon-Israel border could heat up
Nicholas Blanford
Special to The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The Lebanese-Israeli border, the traditional venue for Syria to settle scores with its arch enemy, was bracing Sunday for a possible flare-up of violence after Israeli jets bombed a Palestinian camp in Syria.
The air strike, the first by Israel against targets in Syria since the October 1973 Arab-Israeli war, signals an alarming escalation in the long-simmering conflict between the two countries.
Traditionally Syria and Israel settle their disputes in Lebanon using Lebanese and Palestinian proxies. But Israel has signaled a greater willingness in the past two years to militarily engage Syria
directly, raising the risk of war.
Mohammed Shukri, professor of international law at Damascus University, said the air raid was an “act of war.”
“I hope my government will exercise some kind of restraint otherwise it might lead to a conflict between us and them,” he said. “And that would not be good for anyone.”
But Shukri added: “If they continue this policy of unjustified aggression, Israel will have to face the consequences. Syria is not in a mood of aggression but it will not sit quietly.”
Syrian sources said the target of the air strike, the Ain al-Saheb camp, is home to a handful of Palestinian refugees and is not a facility to train Islamic Jihad militants as claimed by Israel. Security sources in Damascus said that the long-established camp is run by the hard-line Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine _ General Command.
Timur Goksel, a university lecturer in Beirut who served 24 years with a UN peacekeeping force in south Lebanon, argues that Israel is running out of options in trying to thwart Palestinian suicide bombers.
“Israel has tried everything else from closures, assassinations, house demolitions. Now they are hoping the Syrians will pressure the Palestinian groups,” he said.
Goksel added: “I doubt that Syria is running a proxy war against Israel through the Palestinians. But the Syrians are a point of pressure against the Palestinians. The attack is a way of getting the Syrians to do what the Israelis cannot do themselves.”
Many analysts and diplomats believe that withdrawing support for groups like Islamic Jihad and Hizbullah is a red line Syria will not cross. But its retaliatory options, beyond diplomatic measures, are limited, leaving analysts divided on whether the unprecedented attack will provoke a retaliation from Syria.
“I don’t think Syria will react militarily,” said Nizar Hamzeh, professor of politics at the American University of Beirut. “But if the Israelis repeat the attack, I think Syria will send a message along the Lebanon-Israel border using one of its proxy forces, Hizbullah or another group.”
But another Lebanese political analyst said that Syria has no choice but to respond with a face-saving military attack.
“The political cost to Syria would be high if they didn’t retaliate,” the analyst said. “I don’t think the Syrians can really afford not to react.”
There are complicating factors, however. Hizbullah regards itself as a defender of Lebanese sovereignty against Israeli aggression. Therefore, supporters may well question an attack by Hizbullah against Israel as the Israeli air raid struck a Palestinian target in Syria.
Many analysts believe Israel is looking for an excuse to launch an assault on Hizbullah in south Lebanon. An attack by Hizbullah _ or any other group _ at Israeli positions in the Shebaa Farms or across the border into Israel could be used by Israel to justify a military operation.
Since withdrawing from Lebanon in May 2000, Israel’s reluctance to engage Syria directly has lessened. Israel blames Syria for the continuing tension along its border with Lebanon and for supporting Hamas and Islamic Jihad which carry out suicide bombings.
In April and July 2001, Israel bombed Syrian anti-aircraft batteries in Lebanon in response to Hizbullah attacks against Israeli outposts in the Shebaa Farms, a remote mountainside running along Lebanon’s southeast border with the Golan Heights
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/06_10_03/art23.asp
Analyse uit Libanon.
Nicholas Blanford
Special to The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The Lebanese-Israeli border, the traditional venue for Syria to settle scores with its arch enemy, was bracing Sunday for a possible flare-up of violence after Israeli jets bombed a Palestinian camp in Syria.
The air strike, the first by Israel against targets in Syria since the October 1973 Arab-Israeli war, signals an alarming escalation in the long-simmering conflict between the two countries.
Traditionally Syria and Israel settle their disputes in Lebanon using Lebanese and Palestinian proxies. But Israel has signaled a greater willingness in the past two years to militarily engage Syria
directly, raising the risk of war.
Mohammed Shukri, professor of international law at Damascus University, said the air raid was an “act of war.”
“I hope my government will exercise some kind of restraint otherwise it might lead to a conflict between us and them,” he said. “And that would not be good for anyone.”
But Shukri added: “If they continue this policy of unjustified aggression, Israel will have to face the consequences. Syria is not in a mood of aggression but it will not sit quietly.”
Syrian sources said the target of the air strike, the Ain al-Saheb camp, is home to a handful of Palestinian refugees and is not a facility to train Islamic Jihad militants as claimed by Israel. Security sources in Damascus said that the long-established camp is run by the hard-line Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine _ General Command.
Timur Goksel, a university lecturer in Beirut who served 24 years with a UN peacekeeping force in south Lebanon, argues that Israel is running out of options in trying to thwart Palestinian suicide bombers.
“Israel has tried everything else from closures, assassinations, house demolitions. Now they are hoping the Syrians will pressure the Palestinian groups,” he said.
Goksel added: “I doubt that Syria is running a proxy war against Israel through the Palestinians. But the Syrians are a point of pressure against the Palestinians. The attack is a way of getting the Syrians to do what the Israelis cannot do themselves.”
Many analysts and diplomats believe that withdrawing support for groups like Islamic Jihad and Hizbullah is a red line Syria will not cross. But its retaliatory options, beyond diplomatic measures, are limited, leaving analysts divided on whether the unprecedented attack will provoke a retaliation from Syria.
“I don’t think Syria will react militarily,” said Nizar Hamzeh, professor of politics at the American University of Beirut. “But if the Israelis repeat the attack, I think Syria will send a message along the Lebanon-Israel border using one of its proxy forces, Hizbullah or another group.”
But another Lebanese political analyst said that Syria has no choice but to respond with a face-saving military attack.
“The political cost to Syria would be high if they didn’t retaliate,” the analyst said. “I don’t think the Syrians can really afford not to react.”
There are complicating factors, however. Hizbullah regards itself as a defender of Lebanese sovereignty against Israeli aggression. Therefore, supporters may well question an attack by Hizbullah against Israel as the Israeli air raid struck a Palestinian target in Syria.
Many analysts believe Israel is looking for an excuse to launch an assault on Hizbullah in south Lebanon. An attack by Hizbullah _ or any other group _ at Israeli positions in the Shebaa Farms or across the border into Israel could be used by Israel to justify a military operation.
Since withdrawing from Lebanon in May 2000, Israel’s reluctance to engage Syria directly has lessened. Israel blames Syria for the continuing tension along its border with Lebanon and for supporting Hamas and Islamic Jihad which carry out suicide bombings.
In April and July 2001, Israel bombed Syrian anti-aircraft batteries in Lebanon in response to Hizbullah attacks against Israeli outposts in the Shebaa Farms, a remote mountainside running along Lebanon’s southeast border with the Golan Heights
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/06_10_03/art23.asp
Analyse uit Libanon.