Joesoef
27-12-03, 21:36
Iran's capital should be moved, says quake expert
Iran's capital is in such a perilous location it should be moved, according to a leading Iranian earthquake expert.
The sprawling concrete jungle of Tehran is perched on lethal geological faults and experts estimate six percent of the population, or some 720,000 people, could die if "the big one" shakes its ramshackle buildings to the ground.
Bahram Akasheh, professor of geophysics at Tehran University, has formally suggested to President Mohammad Khatami that the centre of government be moved deeper into the interior.
"It would be better to have the capital in somewhere near Isfahan: that would be safer. Other countries have changed their capital without any adverse effect," he said.
Iranian monarch Shah Abbas the Great made Isfahan in central Iran his capital in the late 16th century. Government was moved to Tehran in 1788 and around 12 million people now live there.
Akasheh painted a grim portrait of the effect an earthquake measuring around six on the Richter scale, razing or rendering uninhabitable more than 80 percent of buildings in Tehran.
"Iran would be decapitated," he said, adding that such a disaster was only a question of time.
"The Alborz mountain area is very active seismologically," he said, referring to the towering range that looms over Tehran, itself created by shuffling geological plate activity.
"We can expect an earthquake somewhere beneath eight on the Richter scale, maybe about 7.8," he continued.
Some 35,000 people were killed in 1990 when earthquakes of up to 7.7 on the Richter scale hit the northwest of Iran. Tehran was hit by a quake of about seven on the Richter scale in 1830.
Iran has no plans to move its seat of government though Khatami said ministers would examine Akasheh's proposals.
GIMCRACK BUILDING
Iranian newspapers were quick to praise superior building standards in Japan where a quake measuring eight on the Richter scale killed only one person last month.
One foreign civil engineer working in Iran said the gimcrack building methods he saw each day filled him with terror.
Tehran's hasty building boom was fuelled by refugees pouring in from border cities during the bloody 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war. The high-rises continue to be flung up as the city's population swells up to and beyond 12 million.
Akasheh said little heed was paid to regulations aimed at ensuring building design and materials could withstand quakes.
"Building regulations were introduced but nobody actually does everything that the regulations stipulate," said Akasheh.
He said one of the most stubborn challenges was to breach the air of fatalism with which Iranians view earthquakes.
"Earthquake education is very poor in Iran. Most people think what God wills, will happen. This is absolutely wrong. This thinking is poisonous," he said.
Farhad, 32, a grocer in north Tehran, thought the risks were exaggerated. "Don't worry about an earthquake in Tehran. They are a problem up north, on the Caspian. You don't get serious ones here," he said.
http://www.aig.asn.au/tehran_at_risk.htm
Christian Oliver
Reuters
13-Nov-2003
Door het gebrek aan bouwvoorschriften is de hoofdstad van Iran een potentieel massagraf van ongekende omvang.
Iran's capital is in such a perilous location it should be moved, according to a leading Iranian earthquake expert.
The sprawling concrete jungle of Tehran is perched on lethal geological faults and experts estimate six percent of the population, or some 720,000 people, could die if "the big one" shakes its ramshackle buildings to the ground.
Bahram Akasheh, professor of geophysics at Tehran University, has formally suggested to President Mohammad Khatami that the centre of government be moved deeper into the interior.
"It would be better to have the capital in somewhere near Isfahan: that would be safer. Other countries have changed their capital without any adverse effect," he said.
Iranian monarch Shah Abbas the Great made Isfahan in central Iran his capital in the late 16th century. Government was moved to Tehran in 1788 and around 12 million people now live there.
Akasheh painted a grim portrait of the effect an earthquake measuring around six on the Richter scale, razing or rendering uninhabitable more than 80 percent of buildings in Tehran.
"Iran would be decapitated," he said, adding that such a disaster was only a question of time.
"The Alborz mountain area is very active seismologically," he said, referring to the towering range that looms over Tehran, itself created by shuffling geological plate activity.
"We can expect an earthquake somewhere beneath eight on the Richter scale, maybe about 7.8," he continued.
Some 35,000 people were killed in 1990 when earthquakes of up to 7.7 on the Richter scale hit the northwest of Iran. Tehran was hit by a quake of about seven on the Richter scale in 1830.
Iran has no plans to move its seat of government though Khatami said ministers would examine Akasheh's proposals.
GIMCRACK BUILDING
Iranian newspapers were quick to praise superior building standards in Japan where a quake measuring eight on the Richter scale killed only one person last month.
One foreign civil engineer working in Iran said the gimcrack building methods he saw each day filled him with terror.
Tehran's hasty building boom was fuelled by refugees pouring in from border cities during the bloody 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war. The high-rises continue to be flung up as the city's population swells up to and beyond 12 million.
Akasheh said little heed was paid to regulations aimed at ensuring building design and materials could withstand quakes.
"Building regulations were introduced but nobody actually does everything that the regulations stipulate," said Akasheh.
He said one of the most stubborn challenges was to breach the air of fatalism with which Iranians view earthquakes.
"Earthquake education is very poor in Iran. Most people think what God wills, will happen. This is absolutely wrong. This thinking is poisonous," he said.
Farhad, 32, a grocer in north Tehran, thought the risks were exaggerated. "Don't worry about an earthquake in Tehran. They are a problem up north, on the Caspian. You don't get serious ones here," he said.
http://www.aig.asn.au/tehran_at_risk.htm
Christian Oliver
Reuters
13-Nov-2003
Door het gebrek aan bouwvoorschriften is de hoofdstad van Iran een potentieel massagraf van ongekende omvang.